On November 20th, 2024, the Wisconsin Farmers Union held a webinar with expert speakers on the topic of ethanol as preparation for the pre-convention conversation, Groundswell. This year’s topic will be a facilitated learning session which seeks to build skills in dialogue on polarizing topics, with ethanol being the example subject.
A pre-webinar on the topic of ethanol was held to provide some baseline information from a variety of experts with different perspectives on ethanol. All registrants to Groundswell should watch the webinar so that attendees may be working with information that is current and accurate based on the science available to us now.
Speakers for this webinar were identified and invited based on their experience with ethanol policy, industry, or significant research on ethanol. WFU staff attempted to find expert speakers with diverse views and experiences in the ethanol industry.
This article below provides a general summary of the points each speaker made in regard to the effects of the ethanol industry. But the key points are:
The National Farmers Union has supported the ethanol industry as it has helped farmers maintain a stronger market and has reduced the greenhouse gas emissions of the transportation industry.
Ethanol represents about ⅓ of the U.S. corn product and has increased the price of corn by about 30% and other crops by about 20% annually (Lark and Stevens agreed with this.
The increased profit of corn has meant more corn is grown which has resulted in a 5% increase in erosion and nutrient leaking into public waters as acres are converted from perennial management or kept in row crops.
It is likely that the ethanol industry has supported an increase in corn-growing acres, estimating it to be about 1% of the corn acres in the U.S., about 300,000 acres from 2002 to 2014.
The overall energy production of ethanol is positive. Cooper estimated that for every 1 btu put into ethanol production, 3 or 4 btus are produced.
The downstream consequences of any economic policy are very hard to induce or deduce. There is no easy way to compare the cost to water quality and biodiversity of increased row crop acres to the benefits to cleaner burning fuels of those same acres providing for the ethanol industry.
Full Webinar Summary and Extra Resources
National Farmers Union Policy
The first speaker was Anne Steckel. Her perspective was offered to provide context for how the National Farmers Union has historically and currently lobbies around the topic of ethanol. Steckel serves as a Senior Advisor for the National Farmers Union (NFU). Anne has over 20 years of Washington, D.C. experience, having worked on legislative, regulatory, advocacy, policy and political issues on and off Capitol Hill. Anne has been advising NFU since 2017, where she helps craft policy and consults on political and regulatory issues in the renewable fuels space. In addition, she provides crucial advocacy in Washington, D.C. on Capitol Hill, the White House and the Administration.
Steckel noted that National Farmers Union has provided longstanding support for ethanol. They are currently working to pass E15 use year-round in every state to increase the amount of ethanol that can be mixed into gasoline. They are also working with manufacturers on engine performance. NFU also support work to drive down carbon emissions and works to oppose improper use of small refinery exemptions.
More information on the National Farmers Union policy on ethanol can be found in the NFU policy book pages 149 - 151. Wisconsin Farmers Union policy on ethanol can be found in the WFU policy book on page 35.
Current Ethanol Production and Statistics
The next speaker was asked to provide a snapshot of today’s ethanol industry. Several potential speakers were asked to provide this information, but there were few researchers who felt comfortable providing such an overview. Geoff Cooper, president and CEO of the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA) agreed to provide such context. RFA collectively represents the majority of U.S. ethanol industry leaders and supporters to expand demand for renewable fuels and bio-products.
Cooper noted that Wisconsin has 9 ethanol refineries which are part of the nation’s 18 billion gallon annual production capacity. While 99% of ethanol is produced with corn, there is a small amount that comes from sorghum and other crops including crop waste and residues.
He further outlined that the ethanol industry consumed about 5.5 billion bushels of corn this year, that’s about ⅓ of overall corn produced in the country. The production facilities are also producing high protein animal feed and distillers corn oil which goes into poultry feed market or renewable diesel and biodiesel.
According to Department of Energy, Harvard , MIT, and Tufts research ethanol emits about half of the greenhouse gas emissions that gasoline does with higher reductions likely in the future as carbon sequestration and improvements in field practices occur. Per Cooper, “the more you’re using, the better benefits” which is part of the reason RFA advocates for higher mix standards.
“In the US we are cultivating fewer and fewer acres each and every year. That trend has not been interrupted by the use of renewable fuels.” Cooper noted it’s a safe assumption that without ethanol, there would be even fewer acres. He also noted that we have seen an “enormous” increase in corn production even though we are growing corn on fewer and fewer acres.
Overall the ethanol market has had an effect on the price of corn as well as on other crops. And it is estimated that corn prices have been 30% higher while soybeans and other crops have seen increases closer to 20% as an outcome of the ethanol industry’s impact.
Ecological Impacts of Corn Production and the Ethanol Market
Tyler Lark is a scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison’s Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE), where he leads research on U.S. agricultural land use and its interactions with our nation’s land and water resources. In his presentation, Lark noted that understanding the shift in land use due to the ethanol market has been “a really really hard question” to answer. But his work assembled a team of agronomists, economists, and agricultural geologists to try and answer it.
Lark agreed with Cooper that ethanol policy has increased demand for corn which has increased crop prices. While his research indicates significant land use changes in the Dakotas - shifting to more row crop production and fewer pastures and CRP, there was only a slight increase in row crop acres in Wisconsin according to their research. However, even slight shifts in land use away from perennial management can have big impacts on carbon emissions and water quality. And Lark’s research has indicated that with more corn on the landscape, there has been a roughly 5% increase in soil erosion and nutrient leaking off of fields. The overall impact of the greenhouse gas reductions of ethanol compared to gasoline are therefore hard to balance. More information on Lark’s research can be found through the Wisconsin Energy Institute’s 2022 webinar with Lark.
Economics & Land Use Choices
The final presenter of the afternoon was economist Andrew Stevens. Stevens is an Assistant Professor of Agricultural and Applied Economics at the University of Wisconsin–Madison. His research focuses on economic decision-making throughout the food supply chain from agricultural production to consumer demand.
Stevens agreed with the other speakers that the Renewable Fuel Standard has shifted the demand curve for corn and thus we have seen an increased price of corn by about 30%. World production of corn however has only increased by about 2%. With the enormous growth of ethanol production in the late ‘00s through early ‘10s, Stevens studies how that industrial growth shifted farmers’ likelihood of growing corn. According to his research, proximity to an ethanol plant (under 30 miles) only increased likelihood of growing corn by about 1% or 300,000 acres from 2002 to 2014.
Audience Questions
After the speakers provided their presentations, there was time for audience questions. The speakers were in agreement that ethanol production does provide a net return on energy, although there are some naysayers, the research indicates that every btu of energy put into producing ethanol equates to more energy being provided by ethanol.
There was also discussion of biofuels in general and using a crop source other than corn for ethanol production. Cooper noted there is ample research working on this subject, and white it is possible, it is not currently as feasible in current market conditions.
The audience asked about the price of rural land being affected by the ethanol industry. Although all the speakers agreed it was likely that farmland is of higher value due to the higher value of corn, there was no known research on the implications of that.
The speakers also talked about carbon pipelines and underground storage, that is being pursued by some ethanol plants to reduce their carbon footprint with pressure from the international market.
It was asked how the impact to water quality losses compares to the benefits of cleaner burning fuels and it was agreed this is very hard to quantify or compare.
A full recording of this webinar is available here.
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